Nov

2013 Predictions. A Look Back

23 months ago I posted some predictions for the upcoming 2013 year. For fun, let’s look back and see which ones turned out and which ones didn’t:

Publix will begin construction on their first Triangle store…in Cary in the Davis/54 area. TRUE (kind of) – The store opened at Davis Drive/High House a couple of weeks ago. Not 2013, but I got the location correct!
Publix will pick Creedmoor/Millbrook for their first Raleigh store location. The new owners of Falls Village will make a strong play for Publix, offering to raze half of their center to accommodate a large grocery store. – WRONG – Publix is, however eyeing a North Raleigh site near Bedford for their first Raleigh store
Raleigh will begin discussions to tear down Memorial Auditorium – with the dominant bookings of the DPAC, Raleigh people are increasingly irked by having to go to Durham for so many good events. Leaders in Raleigh will talk about removing the center section of the performing arts complex and replacing it with a stacked, 3-tier facility to compete with the DPAC. – WRONG – Memorial Auditorium’s HVAC system was renovated this summer, but the house continues to struggle against the nationally-renowned DPAC. Give this one a few more years, though.
Violence will be an increasing problem in Glenwood South, and patrons will start seeking another focus for nightlife, most likely in…the Hillsborough Street area, which will be the next wave of downtown revitalization. WRONG – We having seen a big uptick in violence, thankfully. However we are seeing a big movement toward residential space on Hillsborough, and retail will follow.
Orvis will close in Triangle Town Center and seek space in a part of the Triangle where their patrons actually live. Perhaps Kidd’s Hill behind Crabtree? WRONG – The store is still a ghost town, though.
Development of both Kidd’s Kill properties will finally begin, but the Soleil Center/Westin land will remain an empty lot. CORRECT – A very disappointing apartment development is going in behind Crabtree, and the Soleil property remains a fenced off eyesore.
A new mall will be announced for the I-40/42/70/540 area between Clayton and Fuquay. It will focus on serving the Johnston County market. WRONG – Still waiting on this one.
Best Buy will close at least one Triangle location. My bet is the newest store, Brier Creek. CORRECT, KINASORTA – Best Buy is hanging in there, but they did close the store across from Triangle Town Center, and opened a small footprint store farther into Raleigh on Capital Blvd.
Between Liles, The Varsity, and Nowells, Raleigh will only support two, and one will close. – CORRECT – The Varsity closed
As brick & mortar retail continues to struggle, Crabtree will add another restaurant in its mall proper CORRECT – Tomato Pie opened in the mall’s lower level.
While Washington policy will grow much more liberal than we’ve seen in the previous 4 years (increasingly hostile fiscal policies toward the wealthy, increased spending on social programs, and a stark increase in liberal social policies and transit expenditures), North Carolina policy will become more conservative, but not by much. In the next four years issues like Gay Marriage, Legalization of Pot, and Gun Control will stay put in this state, unless there is federal mandate… MOSTLY CORRECT. The wealthiest 1% now pay 24% of the Federal Tax burden, and NC’s policy has stayed conservative. (See Gay Marriage in next comment)
…The Supreme Court will rule that Gay Marriage must be recognized by all states, and Federal Legislation implementing more stringent gun control will override North Carolina’s stance. WRONG METHOD – NC did, in fact, legalize Gay Marriage without a federal mandate, and the issue continues to be challenged in court by conservatives.
North Carolina will get an increased amount of funding for transit (regional “high” speed and local light rail), but the State of North Carolina will decrease expenditures in these areas, and no real progress will occur in the next four years, especially with light rail. WRONG-SORT OF – We didn’t see appreciable funding for transit in 2013, but in early 2014 a light rail project linking UNC and downtown Durham was approved by federal agencies.
Raleigh will continue its oppressive assault on drivers in neighborhoods by reducing the speed limit on Glen Eden to 25 mph. They will also erect more of those contrived islands meant to annoy and slow drivers. WRONG/CORRECT – Glen Eden remains untouched, but we have seen the introduction of speed bumps and arbitrary 4-way stops on streets like Northbrook Drive and Lake Boone Trail. Contrived islands, surprise curb extensions, and traffic circles are planned for Currituck Drive.
UNC and NCSU will field bubble teams in football, once again, that will get absolutely no national attention. CORRECT/INCORRECT – UNC went to the game in Charlotte and NCSU did not win a conference game in 2013. Neither, however, improved their national stature in football.
If the NHL season is cancelled, Backyard Bistro will close. N/A – The NHL season was not cancelled in 2013.
T-Mobile will be bought by one of the other carriers, most likely AT&T, reducing the number of carrier networks to three in the Triangle. WRONG – There are still 4 carriers, and T-Mobile has survived by reducing the 2-year lock-in contracts that became the norm.
Free Wifi will be everywhere by the end of the year. In the malls, the restaurants, and in grocery stores. Most importantly, I predict that free wifi for every fan in the building will be implemented in the PNC Arena. (yay!) WRONG – Slowly, but surely, we are getting there, though.
The number of restaurants with tablet menus will grow quickly. In fact, only cheap or snobby restaurants will be without a tablet presence by the end of 2013. CORRECT/KINDA – iPad lists have been a big hit for extensive wine lists, and we have seen table-top kiosks appear in Chili’s, however digital menus are still in the minority.
Buca di Beppo will announce their first Raleigh/Cary location WRONG (sniff)
PDQ will announce two more locations. One in the Southpoint area and one in Cary. WRONG/CORRECT – PDQ did add two more locations, and one is in Cary. The other is in Wake Forest, not Durham.
One of downtown Raleigh’s Indian restaurants will close. Will it be Blue Mango or Mantra that survives? WRONG
BJ’s Brewhouse will announce their first North Carolina locations – on in Charlotte, one in Cary. WRONG
The next big culinary ethnicity, after Mexican starts to fade, will be South American. Restaurants like Machupicchu and Guasaca will have excellent years, but will see more competition, too, especially in the casual dining space. N/A – We really haven’t seen a replacement for Mexican yet. Still waiting on this one.
Guacamole variations will be the next trend within the Mexican food space CORRECT – Many Mexican restaurants offer varieties of Guacamole.
The IHOP on Hillsborough Street will close, but will be replaced in 2014 by a mixed use apartment building that will have street level retail, including a new IHOP. (This is a planned project. The prediction is that execution will begin this year) WRONG TIMING – Still waiting on this.
The Triangle will be selected as the site for filming a nationally prominent movie. WRONG
No significant changes to Raleigh’s skyline will be introduced in 2013. WRONG – Skyhouse apartments began construction in 2013, and other projects on that block were proposed.
A MakerBot-like 3D printing business will open in Raleigh, allowing people to create functional and artistic plastic items just-in-time. N/A – Maker projects are growing, but we having seen private 3D printing places yet.
Here’s the big one: 2013 will be the Year of Durham, and the crowning moment will be an announcement by Google that their second Google Fiber city will be…Durham. KIND OF CORRECT – Google put the entire Triangle on its short list for fiber, and AT&T announced fiber expansion in the Triangle, too.

So, overall, not too bad. There were some correct predictions, and for the most part, the incorrect ones were not way far off. Some just need more time as the sluggish economy still has lending markets feeling jittery.

In one month I will present predictions for 2015.

Posted by Dana on November 18, 2014 | Tags: Exclusives. | ( 4 ) Comments

Nov

Wicked Taco Bringing Fresh-Mex to Western Blvd

A new fresh-Mex concept restaurant is set to open on Western Boulevard this coming Spring. The restaurant, Wicked Taco, will open its first store in Blacksburg, VA in January. Raleigh’s will be Store #2.

The impressive menu includes tacos featuring rotisserie turkey mole, barbeque brisket, steak, pork carnitas, pulled chicken, citrus-marinated shrimp, fried pollock, and tostada-breaded shrimp. While the menu also features frequently found salads and sides, it features what will be the much-anticipated arrival of Breakfast Tacos to Raleigh.

The restaurant is going into the former KFC location across from Amedeo’s and next to Cook-Out. The owner said the building is in fantastic shape, so construction should begin soon. Plans include a couple of garage doors on the front opening the dining room to a patio. The price point will be similar to Chipotle, but the restaurant will be open for breakfast and late.

Posted by Dana on November 17, 2014 | Tags: Food. | ( 2 ) Comments

Nov

DOT Unveils I-440 Widening Plans

Today the NC Department of Transportation held an information session regarding the I-440 widening plan. Construction on this final piece of “The Beltline” to offer only four lanes, is slated to break ground in 2018, and will likely take two years to complete.

The scope of the project involves Interstate 440 from the I-40 interchange at Crossroads (The Belt Buckle) to the Wade Avenue interchange. It is a stretch that is only 3.75 miles long, but has a significant number of difficult challenges from replacement of all bridges to dealing with terrain problems to overcoming constrictions set by limited right-of-ways.

Let’s look at the key elements, moving from North to South:

I-440/Wade Avenue Interchange

project pdf
The existing problems with this area lie with a heavy traffic load in the afternoon on the ramp from inbound Wade to 440 Eastbound (440E), a short weave under the bridge on Inbound Wade, a short weave on 440E between Hillsborough and Wade, and a short weave on 440W’s bridge over Wade. Planners intend to solve the first two problems by replacing the Wade/440E loop with a flyover bridge. Dealing with the other problems gets extremely tricky, but each plan has one other common feature: the elimination of the Outbound Wade/440W loop. ITB drivers wanting to go to Cary will have to make a left turn after the 440 overpass at a traffic signal. The other options mainly deal with getting traffic on/off of 440E to/from Hillsborough and Wade; the segment bordering Meredith College.

One Flyover

This option puts all traffic coming from Cary onto a 2-lane resurrected loop on the NE corner of the cloverleaf. Traffic headed inbound on Wade waits at a left turn signal while traffic headed outbound continues from the loop into Wade. Hillsborough Street traffic headed out Wade blends with offcoming 440E traffic while cars getting on 440E dives under a new offramp bridge.

This option is the least expensive and offers Hillsborough Street drivers an unimpeded path to Wade Outbound and puts traffic directly onto Wade Avenue (see Two Flyovers). The main problem is that it keeps an unnecessary traffic signal stymying both directions of Wade. Why not keep the off-ramp for Inbound Wade traffic, give outbound their loop, and eliminate the current traffic light?

Two Flyovers

The Two Flyovers option takes traffic on 440E headed to Wade Outbound on a flyover that would merge with offcoming 440 West’s heavy traffic, before merging onto Wade. Traffic headed inbound on Wade uses the current offramp and right turn.

The option makes all traffic coming from Hillsborough have an easy route and removes the existing traffic signal at Wade Avenue. The option keeps speeds higher, reducing bottlenecks, supposedly.

Actually this option would be an expensive nightmare, as then all 440 traffic headed to Wade Avenue west would have to merge with each other as well as short-weave with Wade Avenue traffic before the Blue Ridge Road offramp. Because the Blue Ridge Road offramp is not a part of this project, it cannot be changed and introduces a severe problem with the Two Flyover plan.

Slight Detour

The Slight Detour plan takes 440E traffic headed out Wade through a resurrected 1-lane loop on the NE corner of the intersection. 440E’s Inbound Wade traffic and all of Hillsborough Street’s traffic would proceed to the current Wade Avenue signalized intersection, where Wade Inbound, Wade Outbound, and 440E can be accessed.

This plan handles the 440E to Wade Outbound traffic beautifully, as the traffic merges onto Wade before 440W’s offramp merges. The plan puts a weird burden on the Hillsborough-borne traffic however.

The strongest option of the three, as drawn, is the One Flyover because it keeps traffic from Hillsborough Street flowing best, however an Inbound off-ramp would be the best option as it removes an unnecessary traffic light from Wade Avenue’s flow.

I-440/Western Blvd

project pdf

Raleigh is about to get its first Diverging Diamond Intersection (DDI)! The DDI takes the Western Blvd traffic and swaps sides of the road near the 440 overpass. Each swap is managed by a 2-stage traffic signal, making the intersection easily traversed by pedestrians while keeping Western Boulevard’s traffic flowing well.

DDI intersections are strongest because the swap allows extremely safe, easy left turns onto and off of the highway’s ramps. Initially some are terrified at the thought of swapping the sides of the road, however these intersections are well marked and really feel like a one-way street. They are no scarier than a SPUI interchange, like the one at Southpoint Mall on I-40.

I-440/Jones Franklin

project pdf

The current problems with this intersection are a double traffic light on Jones Franklin (because in the 70s a new apartment complex was allowed to access the road 50 feet from an off-ramp intersection), an extremely dangerous pedestrian situation on the overpass, a short weave on 440E between I-40 and Jones Franklin, and 440’s shortest onramp (Jones Franklin onto 400E).

Where do we start? To begin with, the 440W offramp will be realigned with the apartment complex’s street, creating a single signal intersection. Engineers intend to use a weave (bridged swap) to avoid the current short weave between I-40 and Jones Franklin on 440E.

The realignment will improve dramatically the intersection on the north side of the interchange. The weave? I don’t see much of a problem with the current short weave, and don’t think it needs to be addressed.

One problem, however, with the plan is that it shows Jones Franklin with four northbound lanes between the traffic light and Waters Edge. There is currently a northbound TTA bus stop in that segment (green dot). As designed the TTA bus would have to accelerate across two lanes of traffic through a T intersection after loading passengers.

When I proposed moving the stop to the south corner of the ramp/Sumter intersection (blue dot), the DOT engineer laughed in my face. No way is NCDOT going to allow a bus stop in their intersection, apparently. I was stunned, and appalled, in fact. The proposed intersection could easily be marked with crosswalks and signalized to handle a bus stop before the intersection. It is a far more safe manner than the engineer’s proposal of keeping the stop where it is.

I-440/I-40

The “Belt Buckle” is an intersection needing much improvement. Traffic merging from Crossroads Plaza has to traverse 2 lanes of traffic still hot from a 65mph speed zone. There is a short merge under the 40 bridges, and it creates backups on the US1 North segment of road.

DOT proposes a flyover for 40E traffic headed onto 440E. The plan removes the current loop for this move and solves the short weave problem under the bridge. Seriously, though, who does this move? Of the cloverleaf’s options, that’s probably the least utilized option. If all other things are equal, the flyover should be for traffic moving from US1N onto I-40W. Environmental and legal constraints apparently prohibit DOT from obtaining this land. (I haven’t written about this yet, but David Martin has wanted, for years, to put “Crossroads Towers”, 4 office towers and a hotel ranging from 10-62 stories each, on that land. Stay tuned).

Even more interesting about this intersection, however, is that there is a feasibility study going on right now to examine redoing the entire 440/40 intersection. In other words, a comprehensive overhaul may be coming anyway for this intersection, which means that DOT will likely take the options to just widen 440 to 40 and not touch the intersection for this project.

There are other aspects about this project that don’t require much discussion. The Melbourne Road bridge will be replaced, and the intersection will not close, for instance. DOT also plans to keep Method connected to a cemetery in the shadows of Westgrove Tower, as well.

* * *

However the four big interchanges are the story here. Interim routing will be fascinating, as major changes such as those proposed will require an exquisite amount of detouring during the project.

Posted by Dana on November 12, 2014 | Tags: Exclusives, Transportation. | ( 0 ) Comments

Nov

County Power Shift Brings Major Changes to Raleigh’s Future

Having a multi-tiered government means that every election brings a new character to the way we are governed. Tuesday night’s results certainly lived up to that promise, bringing significant changes to Raleigh.

I’ve always felt that the best place for Liberalism is in local government, where government application can best be managed and tailored for its citizens’ needs. Conversely the best place for Conservatism is in Washington, where one-size-fits-all governing rarely works.

Tillis Defeats Hagan

Surprisingly, outgoing N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated the incumbent senator, Kay Hagan. The results for this race, along with Virginia’s, became the primary focus of national election coverage last night. The win for Republicans added to the party’s newly-gained majority in Washington, leaving President Obama relatively powerless against the Republican-controlled Capitol chambers.

In the end, however, the N.C. Senate race was a red herring for Raleigh residents. At the time of this writing Republicans will have a minimum 4-seat advantage in the U.S. Senate. The Tillis-Hagan race’s timing is being hailed as the race that put the Republicans over the edge for control. However the reality is that over $110 million of money was wasted on a race that means nothing to Raleigh.

Had Hagan won, she would have been a powerless observer in Washington over the next two years, unable to address North Carolina’s concerns. With Tillis’ win, he will be a powerless follower, but perhaps North Carolina’s interests will be better represented with both of its senators being in the same party as the majority and the state’s governor.

One thing that certainly will change for Raleigh residents is the way we watch TV and use the internet. Net Neutrality is dead from this election, so buckle up as internet service providers (ISPs) start to offer “free” or “faster” downloads for their content. I use those terms loosely because what will actually happen is your ISP will download data from competing entertainment companies at very slow rates, maybe even charging you extra for these data bits.

An example of this is your ISP charging a “Netflix surcharge” because you aren’t watching movies the ISP offers. We already are seeing this with “free” music from Rhapsody for T-Mobile users. In actuality they are charging you for music downloads from other companies.

Don’t be surprised if we see the introduction of metered data for home internet, too. ISPs know that Netflix is straining their servers at night, so they intend to pass along the costs of extra capacity. One way to do this is to limit the data you use during those period…unless you pay them extra.

Republicans Maintain Control of Both State Houses

A more important result for Tuesday’s election is the continued control of the state’s government by the Republican party. While some Democrats pulled off upsets, it was still a night where even Democrats with highways named after them lost.

The result was a statement of disapproval by the people against Reverend Barber’s Moral-killing Monday demonstrations. For some reason demonstrators thought they had an effective way to win back control of the state’s government; a message that Republicans hate teachers, minorities, and women. However The People turned out heavily for this midterm election sending a somewhat strong message of support for the current legislature.

Democrats Take Unprecedented Control of County/City Government

Lost in all of the hoopla over the senatorial race was the real story from last night. Not only did Democrats win a voting majority of the Wake County Commission, they have every seat on that commission. In fact, of the 24 main governmental seats in Wake County, 21 are owned by Democrat winners. Only 2 are Republican and 1 an “Independent”.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the entire election is the disparity in government control on the national and state levels with the local government in Raleigh. As I stated earlier, this is probably the best structure for the grand scheme of things, and will definitely be a fascinating study over the next 24 months.

* * *

How Will Raleigh Change?

The Democrat’s sweep of the Wake County Commission was primarily led by the Sig Hutchinson campaign. The announced agenda for the election by his team focused on five areas:

Schools

Wake County should see a big push for increasing teacher pay and building new schools. With no resistance, we should see a reversal of the conservative-led movement away from busing a few years ago.

Transit

For over twenty years Raleigh has tried to organize a plan for “mass transit” (high-occupancy rail transit) and hasn’t been able to gain any decent funding beyond Planning and Land Acquisition. That all changed yesterday, however, as Wake County’s commissioners will get serious about developing a rail transit system. With the approval of the Orange/Durham light rail plan by the Feds back in February, Raleigh and county leaders feel like the city has fallen far behind in planning. There will be a huge push toward getting ground broken as soon as possible, regardless of costs.

Parks and Greenways

Parks and greenways seem to win every bond referendum, and this year’s bond victory is no different than others. Expect to see continued development of greenways paths, especially in outlying areas of Wake County. However the biggest change we will see is the realization of Dix Park. With the county and city behind this, there is finally political pressure to make the Dix Park dream a reality.

Water and Environment

Expect a big change in wastewater treatment, as storm water runoff and sewage are going to play big roles. Whether we see the return of a garbage disposal ban or water use restrictions during abundance is yet to be determined, however you better save those plastic bags from the grocery store because they will likely be banned in Wake County. We may also see development of larger water reservoirs, however the big push from this group will certainly be on the conservation end.

Jobs and Economic Development

We can expect a big push for arts-oriented and computer lifestyle jobs. Too, we should see a big push in transit-oriented development and infill projects, and a de-emphasis on sprawl-oriented, land-clearing projects.

How Will Raleigh Pay For This?

The new agendas in transit and schools will be extremely costly, and is not achievable with the current tax structure. With Republicans holding the federal and state purse strings, there will be a sense that Wake County should try to fund as much of this as possible locally. This makes sense, actually, given that we are the the benefactors of a system. After all, it isn’t Peoria’s responsibility to pay for our light rail system.

Residents should plan for steep (>20%) increases in property taxes. A hotter political item, however, will be a necessary sales tax increase. Currently Wake County is one of the 71 counties with the lowest sales tax rate in the state, 6.75%. The highest sales taxes exist in the transit-taxed Durham and Orange (7.5%) and Mecklenburg (7.25%). Wake County residents should prepare for a sales tax of at least 7.5%, however 7.75% is likely to be proposed given the perceived need to “catch up” with other counties’ transit plans in light of absent federal and state funding.

Usually it takes time for sift the meaning of elections. In Washington the unpopular President Obama will have to figure out (perhaps borrowing from President Clinton’s playbook) how to legislate with the opposing party controlling both the Senate and House. Locally, however, the future is clear. We’ve seen what Raleigh City Council leadership wants over the last 10 years wants, and over the last year we’ve seen what the Wake County School Board wants. Now that their county-level restrictions are gone, and we will see all three bodies start to stretch their legs very quickly as they steer Raleigh forward.

Posted by Dana on November 5, 2014 | Tags: Exclusives, Transportation. | ( 4 ) Comments