Jan

History Making Heels and Wolfpack Prepare for Battle

With both NCSU and UNC coming off of thrilling home wins over Top 10 opponents, tonight’s showdown looks to be another great chapter in the rivalry’s rich history. Last year’s epic overtime battle was a modern era classic, and while many of the players return for tonight’s game, the primary factors are completely different.

The NCSU team has only recently found its identity. We knew they had a talented backcourt, but the the inconsistent play in the first dozen games really hampered the team. They keys to NCSU tonight are two-fold:

While point guard Cat Barber continues to bring outstanding athleticism but sputtering smarts to the game, transfer Trevor Lacey has become an all-conference level performer. Nobody is talking about how Lacey can do everything that T.J. Warren could do, but the truth is, he isn’t far from consistently being that level of player.
BJ Anya is a great shotblocker who is foul-prone. If he can stay on the court, NCSU’s frontcourt can match up to UNC’s.

State’s play is straightforward, but UNC’s is not. The first part of this 2015 season has been a trying one for UNC fans. The team, sporting with 6 McDonald’s All-Americans, has struggled to show any kind of cohesiveness and consistency. However dissecting the Heels reveals some things about this team that the babbling, mantra-driven local sports radio media fails to see.

Against the 5th most-difficult schedule in the country thus far, UNC has held opponents to only 0.78 points per possession. That’s the best defensive of any UNC team in the 19 years I’ve tracked this statistic. That’s a period where the school has won 2 National Championships, been to 5 Final Fours, and put dozens of players into the NBA. The goal is to keep teams below 0.85, and this team is surpassing the stated goal by an impressive amount.
UNC is averaging 4.5 more possession than opponents, the largest
margin in the tracking period, too. This means that this team is the best rebounding UNC team in the last two decades.
UNC is the #4 team in the nation in defending the 3-pointer (and that’s including the stats from the Notre Dame game).
UNC is averaging 0.90 points per possession on offense. That ranks
#15 in the 19-year period. (goal is to be >0.95)
UNC is turning the ball over on 14.4% of its possessions. That’s a fairly average performance compared to other years.
UNC is shooting 31% from 3, good for a #271 national ranking (345 ranked). They are #302 in 3 pointers made in each game.

With UNC’s weakness being outside shooting, one would think UNC would play to its strengths, however they are attempting 24% of their shots from beyond the arc. Usually Roy’s teams can shoot the 3 well, and only take about 22% of their shots from behind the arc.

The keys for UNC moving forward are establishing Joel Berry as the primary PG, moving Marcus Paige to the SG, narrowing the rotation, and running the offense through Kennedy Meeks.

Much attention is on Marcus Paige, however the statistics show that UNC falls apart offensively when Kennedy Meeks leaves the game. For UNC to win tonight, they need an excellent game out of Meeks, and to shut down the Pack offensively.

In the last 20 years NC State is 1-14 after beating Duke or UNC. I expect NCSU to struggle shooting the ball tonight, and for UNC to win this chapter. Revenge for tonight’s loser comes in 5 weeks, though, where NCSU may play their best Dean Dome game in quite some time. We’ll see…

Posted by Dana on January 14, 2015 | Tags: Exclusives, Sports. | ( 2 ) Comments

Jan

25 Predictions for 2015

It’s that time of year. As a new one rolls around we look forward at the trends and events that will likely impact our lives in Raleigh. In no particular order, here is a glimpse into the crystal ball:

2014 was a banner year for electronic security breaches, and 2015 will continue the pattern. Banks and retailers, now facing higher than ever write-offs due to security breaches, will fully embrace cardless payments, and ApplePay will be huge. ApplePay is so secure and so easy, we will see iOS gain back some noticeable American marketshare from Android. A related technology we will see will be a payment by car; an ApplePay and Google Wallet extension in new cars allowing quick payment in drive-thru windows and turnpike tolling gates.
As a result of new, secure payments and the end of predictable market corrections, we will see a solid year for brick and mortar retail.
In food trends 2015 will be the Year of Cauliflower, and we will see it everywhere.
Wake County will see sizable increases in property taxes and sales tax rates.
Some Hibernian property will have a fire (they always do).
After recently releasing their worst album, U2 will scale back their existing tour plans, and will not perform in North Carolina this time around.
Raleigh will extend the route of its ever-popular Christmas parade.
Raleigh will join in on the donut craze that has hit both Durham and Cary, with a donut shop opening in downtown or Hillsborough St.
After much success with a seasonal store, A Southern Season will open a permanent store in Cameron Village.
As with each year, we will say goodbye so some restaurants, but probably fewer old favorites than in 2014. Unless they are able to make changes to generate a serious amount of buzz, we are most likely to lose Zoe’s Kitchen, some Moe’s locations, Flying Biscuit (it will be a terrible year for Raving Brands), Crowley’s, Mia Francesca, Taj Mahal, and a few Subway locations.
2015 will be a huge year for straight-to-internet movies, and will be a difficult year for movie theater houses. Large movie complexes have less marginal overhead per screen-showing, so we will only see a slight reduction in their showtimes offered. However it will be very difficult for The Varsity in Chapel Hill to make it. Raleigh’s Ambassidor Cinemas, with 12 total screens over 4 locations, will likely scale back operations, too, especially at the Six Forks location.
Publix will announce an alternate North Raleigh location.
2015 will see a surge of bluegrass-inspired local bands forming in Raleigh.
2015 will bring national exposure to Vivian Howard and her show “A Chef’s Life”.
2015 will be an off year, but nonetheless a strong one, for James Beard nominations in North Carolina.
The Velvet Cloak property will be sold and plans to raze it and replace it with a mixed-use project will surface.
Once again, Raleigh will continue its oppressive assault on drivers in neighborhoods by reducing speed limits on more wide, neighborhood streets to 25mph. They will also erect more of those contrived islands meant to annoy and slow drivers.
UNC and NCSU will field bubble teams in football, once again, that will get absolutely no national attention.
The entire KMart chain will close and RadioShack will close many stores in 2015. JCPenney will close many stores nationally, but the North Hill store will unfortunately remain open. (can you at least keep the lightbulbs replaced?)
A new mall will be announced for the I-40/42/70/540 area between Clayton and Fuquay. It will focus on serving the Johnston County market.
The Carolina Hurricanes will finish their worst season on record amid rumors of the franchise moving to Las Vegas.
In downtown Raleigh we will see the closing of a Mexican restaurant and opening of a South American sit-down restaurant.
In Men’s Basketball Duke will make the Final Four, UNC will lose in the Final Eight, and NCSU will not make the tournament.
Due to legal pressures, hostile behavior by executives, a backlash against surge pricing, and taxi and lobbying powers, Uber will fail nationally (much like Aereo did).
And in the world of dentistry: electric toothbrushes that log activity, much like a FitBit, will hit shelves and be quite popular, especially models designed for children and teens.

Posted by Dana on January 5, 2015 | Tags: Exclusives. | ( 3 ) Comments

Jan

Raleigh’s 10 Biggest Stories of 2014

As we shut the door on 2014 we take a look back at the stories of 2014 that will have the biggest impact on Raleigh moving forward (in no particular order of importance):

Mitchell Silver leaves Raleigh for NYC

Mitchell Silver, Raleigh planning director for the past 9 years, accepted what he calls his final job when he got a call from NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio. Silver will serve out the next 4 or 8 years as New York’s Commissioner of Parks, an intends to retire to Raleigh afterward. In his 9 years Silver laid out two comprehensive planning planning strategies, but also executed some masterful microdesigns that have made downtown Raleigh a more unified, walkable, and livable place.

State and Federal Elections (aka “Moral Monday Backlash”)

The state’s NAACP director organized some well-attended, disruptive demonstrations at the state legislature. Not only did these actions affect no change with legislation, on November 4, voters across the state chose to continue the Republican super majority in the state houses.

Wake County Democrats Take Supermajority

Probably the most surprising and most impactful story of 2014 was the Democrats’ sweep of Wake County Commissioner seats, taking every seat on the board. There are 24 elected seats in Wake County and 21 are held by Democrats. While most didn’t expect a full sweep in a vacuum, the biggest surprise is that it occurred on a day where nationally Republicans had one of their best election days in recent memory.

Tupelo Honey Opens in Cameron Village

There has been a lot of fuss over Tupelo Honey in Asheville, and the restaurant’s most recent expansion was into Raleigh. Raleigh’s best new restaurant came at the end of the year, and it has been packed since Day One.

Thomas Crowder Dies

One of the key members of Raleigh’s Democrat-led City Council died after a somewhat short battle with testicular cancer. Crowder was a part of the Meeker-led bloc that spearheaded changes in Raleigh’s downtown and suburban development. His seat is filled by his surviving wife, Kay.

Fortify Project Begins

The three-year plan to dig up I-40 and I-440 from Poole Road to the Crossroads interchange got in full swing, leaving drivers waiting through delays and finding alternate routes through southeastern Wake County.

Wainstein Report Released/UNC Scandal Grows

2014 was the worst year in UNC’s 219 years of history. What started as a scandal about football improprieties grew in 2014 taking down UNC’s academic reputation with it. UNC Chancellor Carol Folt commissioned an investigation into academic wrongdoing in the AfAm department. The results showed, however, that non-athletes were in the majority of those receiving sham credit hours, and from multiple departments. The NCAA re-opened their investigation into the matter, however we still await its conclusion and response

Ashley Christensen Wins Beard Award

There have been many great years recently for Raleigh chef Ashley Christensen, but 2014 has to be her finest yet. In early May she was named the Best Chef in the Southeast by the James Beard Society. Christensen not only saw her existing restaurants strengthen their bases, but she also announced the planning of a new restaurant, Death & Taxes, and opened a commissary to run back-end food prep for her family of restaurants.

Triangle Flexes Culinary Muscle

While it was a banner year for Ashley Christensen, it was a fantastic year for the entire Triangle. Out of the 433 national nominees for James Beard awards, 9 were in the Triangle area, joined by 3 others from the rest of North Carolina, totaling 12 for the state. No restaurants from Charlotte, the Triad, or Wilmington were nominated. Only 6 nominees went to each Virginia and South Carolina, while 11 went to Georgia. Much ballyhooed Austin, Texas? They got just 3.

Snow Cripples Raleigh, Frightens Duke

On February 12 Raleigh got an icy 3 inches of snow, causing severe traffic problems. When one untalented driver on highway 70 revved the engine too high causing the engine to burst into flames, the ensuing mayhem on eastbound 70 in front of the Angus Barn became fodder for a national meme.

Duke was to travel to Chapel Hill to play in the Dean Dome that night, but Mike Kryzyzewski feared problems traveling on 15-501, and canceled the game. With everyone else in place to play the game, including ACC referees and TV crews, many speculated that K was trying to protect his team from embarrassing themselves on national TV. The game was postponed and UNC still won. Duke saved the embarrassment for March 21 with a first-round NCAA Tournament ousting at the hands of Mercer.

Posted by Dana on January 2, 2015 | Tags: Exclusives. | ( 1 ) Comment

Jan

2014: The Rain Year

One of the most underreported stories of 2014 is the enormous amount of rain that fell on the city in the second half of the year. Without a tropical storm or hurricane to inflate annual totals, as we typically see, Raleigh still got 55.29” of rain. This is 11.95” above the normal 43.34” annual total.

I am not privy to historical rainfall totals for this area, but being 28% above the normal level is exceedingly rare, and likely greater than 2 standard deviations away from average. By comparison 1996, a famous year which brought two hurricanes to Raleigh and featured a September with 16.65” of rain alone, had a total of 59.14”, a total 36% above normal. 2014 however was a year which had normal rainfall for the first half, then about seven large dumps throughout the entire late summer and fall. It was an unusual pattern that will certainly have an effect on root and mold development through the coming winter and spring.