Feb

Canes Poised for Playoff Run?

After an abysmal start to the season, the Carolina Hurricanes enter the Olympic Break as the NHL’s hottest team. Is there room to make the playoffs? Let’s see…

The boys are only about 8 points out of being in the conversation. Had they just won 1 game every month, we’d be right about where the team is in the standings most seasons. Perhaps the playoff cutoff will be lower than the typical 93 points, because the current 8th place team is going to have to go 14-3-1 to get to 93.

So maybe the cutoff isn’t 93 this season. With around 20 games to go, and with a playoff-level team winning 60% of the time and, therefore, earning 24 more points, I’m thinking the cutoff will around 87 for the East this season.

In order to get 87 standings points, the Canes will have to get 32 points in the remaining 21 games. So, they will have to close out the season with a 16-5 (76%) record. So really, Rutherford should trade every unrestricted free agent, limit practices, and perhaps have the team meals at the Raleigh Convention Center to assure that this team tanks and gets at least a decent draft pick for putting the fans through that horrible first third of the season. There sure are some nice draft picks to get this year.

todd

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Hurricanes.html
This site breaks down every possible outcome for the season and shows the chances that the Canes have of making the playoffs. Hitting 87 points (15-4-2 to end the season) gives a 52% chance of making the playoffs.
- http://www.danamccall.com Dana
  
  15-4-2 is a pretty incredible record, and STILL only gives us a 52% chance. It’s interesting that 90pts would give us a 94% chance of getting in, which means that it looks like 87 is a pretty realistic expectation of the cutoff.
tito

the convention center likely was not the cause of this weekend’s illness at the sheraton. over one thousand people ate the convention center’s dinner. 150 kids reported being sick. that group also ate at chick-fil-a, ordered local pizza, etc. the convention center’s kitchen was fully inspected and no deficiencies were found.
Emma

Did they do that calculation before or after Cullen was traded? Did they factor in the likely Whitney trade?
http://www.danamccall.com Dana

Yes, but the convention center also got an 88.5 sanitation grade during one of their three inspections in the last year, so they are fair game for merciless public ridicule!

(they did get a bonus 2 points for attending a food safety course, which brought up their score to 90.5 – still, the bacteria don’t care whether or not a single person with the company spent time attending a course)
http://www.sportsclubstats.com Ken Roberts

Hi guys, I’m Ken, the guy who makes the site Todd linked to.
I actually live in Raleigh, and frequent Dana’s blog. I graduated from State around 93.
Emma, your correct in asking, it does not factor in trades. And it does not weight recent performance more than early season performance. So that 0.7% playoff chance it shows is likely too low.
Go Canes!
todd

Awesome to see you here, Ken. Am I correct in assuming that you’ve just done a huge, purely mathematical simulation? As in, you’ve taken the result of every game for every team for the rest of the season at 50/50?
It seems like the math behind it wouldn’t be all that tough, but the trick would be in the bookkeeping. My programming skills aren’t quite good enough to try a project like that…
Subway Scoundrel

I think it will take 92 points and as much as I would love to make the playoffs, I say trade Whitney, Corvo, Alberts and even Ward if someone will take him. Ray Shero, Pens GM saidwhen talking about trades and where Whitneys’ names keeps coming up said “I’m not giving up a #1 draft pick adn a prospect for anyone” without mentioning Whitney by name. So JR is asking a lot and I hope he gets it.

Again, I think the number is 92 (OK not STATS guy here) and I don’t see it happening. I want them to win but I also want to see the Oilers, Toronto and the Isles to win too so we can get a first 3 pick.
http://www.raleighmsa.com Ernest

Regardless of the mathematical probabilities, if we are going to be humiliated like we were early this season, I’d rather not see Canes going to the play-offs, although it would make an interesting come-back story. I am grateful for the effort they made and for their good performance, as of late.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com Ken Roberts

Todd, this page sort of kind of explains how it works:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/WhatIsThis.html

Your correct, the math is not hard.
Pushing the site forward, for me, is hard. Almost by definition. And fun too. Sometimes.
http://www.danamccall.com Dana

Hey tito,
They concluded that it WAS the convention center’s banquet facility that was the source of the outbreak.
http://www.wral.com/news/local/story/7288143/

Posted by Dana on February 15, 2010 | Tags: Sports . | ( 11 ) Comments

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Canes Poised for Playoff Run?

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